Strong Dollar Suppresses Aluminum Prices
On June 24, LME aluminum prices retreated to levels prior to the outbreak of the Iran war. A strong dollar and hopes for supply recovery in the Gulf region became the main suppressing factors. As rising dollar exchange rates reduced the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities, and investors' concerns over Middle East geopolitical risks eased, aluminum supply in the region is expected to gradually return to normal. This trend indicates that short-term aluminum market supply and demand fundamentals are regaining dominance, and geopolitical premiums have largely dissipated.
Geopolitical Premiums Dissipate
For aluminum prices, current financial factors outweigh physical supply and demand changes, with market sentiment turning cautious. However, analysts point out that the Middle East situation remains uncertain, requiring continued focus on actual supply-side recovery progress; current price adjustments reflect more risk premium unwinding than fundamental changes.